GOP Keys to Analyzing Election Night
by Linda DiVall
President, American Viewpoint, Inc.
CBS Consultant
October 30, 1998

  1. The generic ballot

    • In 1994, Republicans received 53% of the vote according to VNS exit polling data in their historic 52 seat gain. In 1996, GOPers received 50% of the vote in losing 8 seats. The GOP will retain the majority if they pull 50% on the generic ballot.

  2. The magic number

    If the GOP gains 7 in the House that would place the Democrats at 199 - the lowest number of seats held by the Democrats since 1947 - the 80th Congress - when they held a meager 188 seats. This decline would probably result in a number of senior Democrat incumbents making the decision to retire rather than opt for re-election in 2000 and be a part of a permanent minority.

  3. 5 Critical Groups to Look at on Election Night I Will Look at on Election Night:

    • Seniors
    • Devout right
    • White women
    • Conservatives
    • Suburbia

    • Seniors. Republicans received 51% of the vote with seniors in both 1994 and 1996. American Viewpoint polling during September and October showed seniors only narrowly approving of Clinton's job performance (52%approval - 44% disapproval) and voting for the GOP on the generic ballot (44%-37%). Democrats are not unmindful of this and that is one reason they are attacking Republican candidates so aggressively on the Social Security issue in an attempt to divert voters away from Clinton's personal behavior and toward an issue highly salient to seniors. In 1994, seniors comprised 27% of the electorate - if that increases and the GOP holds on to their margin on the generic ballot Republicans will gain seats.

    • Devout Right. For some reason, VNS has only asked people to define themselves as members of the religious right in the exit polling; our preference is a stricter definition of religiosity. For example, in American Viewpoint's recent national poll, high frequency church attendees (attend church at least once per week) disapproved of Clinton personally 24%-65% while showing only mediocre approval of his job performance (51%-47%). However, when we examine a derived group classified as devout right (self-identified conservatives who attend church at least once per week), Clinton's job performance rating declined to 35%-64% and his personal ratings were even worse at 17%-77%.

      So on election night, listen carefully to the vote performance of the white religious right. They were 14% of the electorate in 1994 and voted Republican at a healthy clip of 63%-37%. Our mid-October poll showed the devout right voting Republican by a margin of 62%-21%. If they exceed their turnout performance of 1994 and just maintain the vote margin from our earlier poll it will be a good night for Republicans and some unexpected surprises will develop in rural districts.

    • White women. In 1996, the GOP received 50% of the vote with white women and I believe Republicans will match that or exceed it on Election Night. If that is the case, and Republicans continue to perform well with men, 48%-32% with white men, (even if a narrow gender gap persists) the GOP will build on its majority.

    • Conservatives. In 1994, 36% of the electorate identified themselves as conservatives and only 17% as liberals. Conservatives voted Republican on the generic ballot 81%-19% and I believe they are just as motivated to vote against Clinton now as they were then.

    • Suburbia. GOP vote performance declined significantly with suburban men and suburban women in 1996 from 1994. The GOP dropped 6%, falling from 62% with men to 56%; and falling from 53% to 47% with women. If Republicans boost their vote performance with the soccer moms to over 50%, they will win key suburban districts.

  4. What would constitute a good night for the GOP and where will those gains come from?

    • Polls will close first in Indiana and Kentucky. Democrats are expected to win the open Indiana U.S. Senate seat and the Kentucky Senate contest will go down to the wire. If the GOP gains 1-2 seats in Indiana and is +1 in Kentucky, Republicans will be off to a good start. Other key Midwestern bellwethers are in OH, IL, WI and MI. Republican gubernatorial candidates are expected to win all 4 contests and Governor Engler's strong performance in Michigan and Governor Thompson in Wisconsin could create some unexpected opportunities for Republicans at the Congressional level (particularly in suburban Detroit). If the GOP comes out of these 4 states with a +4 or better gain, they can crack +10 overall for the evening.

    • The GOP will not lose many - if any - seats in the Northeast this year and one reason for that will be the strong performance of GOP Governors at the top of the ticket and not having Clinton at the top of the ticket as in 1996.

    • California is critical. Gray Davis is opening up a double digit lead against Dan Lungren and Barbara Boxer is beginning to pull away from Matt Fong. If that holds, then a number of congressional races will be quite competitive. The Republicans are counting on winning two open seats (CA 3 and 36) and are expected to lose one (CA 1). If the GOP ends up coming out of California in a break even position then they will have held down opportunities for Democrats to make significant inroads on their majority status.

    • Finally, look to see how Republicans do in maintaining their hold on GOP open seats that have been classified as toss-ups all season (WI 1, 2, WA 3, NV 1, MS 4, KY, 4, ID 2). If they lose no more than 3 GOP open seats and no more than 3 GOP incumbent seats Republicans will have again thwarted Democrat opportunities.

  5. In Senate contests, a number of states are currently too close to call. New York (D'Amato), North Carolina (Faircloth), Wisconsin (Feingold), Nevada (Reid), Kentucky (Ford open seat). Also, look for an upset. For example, Linda Smith, running against Patti Murray has never lost a race, is underfunded and has drawn the ire of the Republican establishment for her views on trade, campaign finance reform and other issues. She just might be the wild card for the evening. And of course, everyone will be looking to see if the GOP gets to 60 seats for a filibuster-proof Senate.

  6. Finally, look at VNS exit polling data on the question of whether your vote for Congress today was one to express support or opposition to Bill Clinton. If a plurality of Independents say they are voting to express opposition to Bill Clinton, the GOP will have a good night.

    • If this breaks even then it will be a district-by-district slugfest with the final outcome of the House in terms of actual number of seats held by each party not certain for a few days after Election Day.