Clay Shaw FL-22

Given the results of 2000 (Shaw won by just 599 votes), 2002 was expected to be another tough race for Congressman Shaw. He faced Palm Beach County Executive Carol Roberts, well known from her participation in the Florida recount.

Redistricting significantly altered Shaw’s district, adding over 50% new territory to the district.

Despite the new territory, the issues of 2002 were much the same as 2000. Early polling showed that health care and prescription drugs dominated this district with 40% of the electorate over 60.

Carol Roberts’ polling obviously showed that as well. The Roberts campaign ran an "Rx Carol" campaign for nearly the entire last three months.

In late September, our research began to show some impact from Roberts’ message.

However, any surge that she may have experienced stopped in mid October with news coverage of her promotion of seniors purchasing their drugs from Canada, Mexico and over the Internet. The press pointed out this practice was illegal and more importantly, dangerous.

In the final weeks of the campaign, our brushfire surveys showed a lack of ballot improvement for Roberts, allowing the Shaw campaign to stay on message focusing on his accomplishments fighting to protect Social Security as the Ways and Means Social Security Subcommittee chair. It also allowed Shaw to point to his accomplishments in protecting the Everglades and his record of constituent services in general.