Matt Blunt for Governor (MO)

When Matt Blunt first decided to run for Governor in early 2003, he was planning on running against a very unpopular incumbent whose job approval was under 30%.

Early in the process American Viewpoint developed a vote model for the campaign that included vote goals for each region of the state. This model was used to track where the campaign was under-performing throughout tracking and helped decisions on resource allocations.

American Viewpoint worked closely with the campaign to put together a benchmark survey that tested Matt’s background, issue positions and experiences, as well as past positions taken by the unpopular incumbent Governor. With this the campaign was armed with the information needed to layout their message strategy for the next year and a half.

However, in the summer of 2004 it became apparent that Governor Holden was facing a very difficult primary challenge from the Missouri State Auditor, Claire McCaskill. Ultimately McCaskill upset Governor Holden in the primary, greatly affecting the Blunt campaign plan.

The plan was originally built on a thematic of change--and specifically a change from the unpopular incumbent. However, Auditor McCaskill’s primary victory brought about that change prematurely forcing the Blunt campaign to refocus its efforts.

The day after the primary the Missouri press focused on McCaskill as a giant killer and the new front-runner in the race for Governor. The premise of Matt Blunt’s vision for Missouri did not change, but the comparison of his background to McCaskill’s did. Through a post-primary benchmark and dial testing of potential advertising, several things became apparent:

1. Matt Blunt’s background as a naval officer was a strong selling point and demonstrated the leadership necessary to be Governor.

2. Claire McCaskill was very vulnerable on issues dealing with past personal tax issues as well as dealing with her husband’s nursing homes.

3. While Matt Blunt’s values matched closely with out-state Missourians, Claire McCaskill’s did not.

4. The three key swing groups were women, suburban voters and seniors. American Viewpoint conducted extensive sub-group analyses of the voting blocs to identify key issues that would move them to the Blunt side.

Ultimately Matt Blunt was elected Governor in the battleground state of Missouri by over 81,000 votes, the first time a Republican was elected Governor in Missouri since John Ashcroft in 1988.